I was just viewing Real Clear Politics’ take on the Democratic Presidential horse race.  Despite what Obama said yesterday, his rise in the polls was not directly related to his October 29th appearance on "Ellen".  At that point, and for a good deal of time thereafter, he was flat lining at about 21%.   There appears to be two large "bounces".  The two bounces seem related to Obama victories.  But does that really tell the whole story?  The first occurs right after the Obama’s Iowa caucuses win, and the second occurs right before the Super Tuesday contents.  

SUSA will release a new TX poll tonight at 11:00 pm.  Their last poll showed Clinton: 50 Obama: 45.  Here is their teaser:

   SurveyUSA's Texas clients, KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas and KRLD-AM radio Dallas, will release results of SurveyUSA's newest Democratic Primary poll tonight at 11 pm ET, 10 pm CT.

   1 in 4 Democratic primary voters have already voted. But for whom? Stay tuned ...

I wonder what is shaking?  Any thoughts?

By now we're all familiar with Hillary's rant in Ohio.  It was somewhat reminiscent of another unfortunate desperation scream in Iowa a few years ago.  (I was big Dean supported, BTW.) Only this time she was whining about a flier that presents a set of rather inconvenient truths.  My guess is what really upsets her is that her campaign is broke and can't respond so she's looking for free media coverage.  

Hillary has always has a tone problem that she has recently tried to address by speaking in an almost breathless fashion designed to cover up her scolding pitch.  However, if she keeps up like she did today I am going to have to call her hysterical, and I don't think that is what we want in the Whitehouse.

Great theme song for Obama!

Those Deadheads for Obama will recognize this...I'm not plagiarizing here, really.

This is from David Dodds website:

http://arts.ucsc.edu/...

"   And the politicians throwin' stones,
   So the kids they dance
   And shake their bones,
   And it's all too clear we're on our own.
   Singing ashes, ashes, all fall down.
   Ashes, ashes, all fall down.

   Picture a bright blue ball,
   Just spinnin', spinnin, free.
   Dizzy with the possibilities.
   Ashes, ashes, all fall down."

The common wisdom is that the super delegates' decisions about whom to support will be heavily influenced by electability...not to mention John Edwards.

WI was up for grabs the last two elections with Gore and Kerry both winning by narrow margins.

Many think that because the generic Dem out polls the generic GOPer that it doesn't matter who the Dems nominate.

That said, check out these results from highly reliable SUSA

What a long strange trip its been...indeed.  While Obama has had a lot of momentum the past couple of weeks, he was consistently running behind Hillary in the national polls.  Today, Obama broke through his own glass ceiling.  

Survey USA published the following results today (MOE 4.2)

Obama: 50
Clinton: 40
Others/Undecided: 10

I read and enjoyed "Crashing the Gate", and one thing I remember from it is the idea that Dems need to more efficiently finance their campaigns.  I think to some degree Obama has not followed through insofar as he is still paying his team a percentage of the ad buys.  On the other hand, he seems to have also made a strong commitment to funding organizational structures that support the vote.

But I am intrigued by questions having to do with how Hillary is spending her money and where it came from...more after the fold...

California will be huge...check this out

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

This is pretty cool because you can see the trend lines for different demographic groups.  I hypothesized that whites were going to decide this election, given blacks will vote for Obama and the Hispanics will vote for Hillary.  I was surprised to see Hispanics trending towards Obama, but I was shocked to see whites now evenly split between Obama and Clinton.

By this time everyone knows that Karl Rove submitted his resignation yesterday, but everyone also knows that if Karl Rove calls something "white" it is surely "black".  Attacking an opponent's strength by leaking incorrect information about, or more blatantly lying about, him or her was the key tactic used by Rove-led GOP machine...just ask John Kerry and Ann Richards.

Today, everyone is wondering about the timing and reason for Rove's resignation.  Perhaps there is some light to be shed by dissecting his own words from yesterday in accord with his previous statements.

The Dems have agreed to participate in the Bush's Iraq Advisory Group.  Initially, Pelosi and Reid rejected the idea because Bush insisted on choosing the democratic members who would constitute the group.  In exchange for allowing the Dems to choose the members of their delegation who would form the group, they agreed to participate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/... html

This is a critical decision that will let us know how committed the leadership is the withdrawing from Iraq.  One question is whether Lieberman will be allowed by the Democratic leadership to be member of the group....interesting politics.

 Steve Stone tendered his letter of resignation to the Chicago Cubs on Thursday, electing not to return as television color commentator for the club after a controversy-riddled 2004 season.

Dear Cubs fans:

I came to Chicago on the high road with my credibility and integrity. Thirty years later, I choose to leave the same way.

The phrase I used that angered certain people was "I regret nothing." Well folks, I was wrong about that and want to set the record straight. I regret I won't be calling another Cubs game on WGN-TV for the greatest fans in baseball...the fans of the Chicago Cubs.

Best regards,

Steve Stone